ciuri anTaZe
ekonomikur mecnierebaTa doqtori
Tanamedrove saqarTveloSi arsebuli socialuri riskebi mravalferovani da mravalaspeqtiania. maTi didi nawili samuSao Zalis aRwarmoebasa da dasaqmebas ukavSirdeba. aseTi xasiaTis socialuri riskebidan ZiriTadia:
Ø mosaxleobis raodenobis kleba, demografiuli daberebis tempebis daCqareba da `demografiuli bonusis~ Semcireba;
Ø mosaxleobis janmrTelobis gauareseba da jandacvis dafinansebis efeqturi sistemis ararseboba;
Ø xarisxiani ganaTlebis naklebi xelmisawvdomoba;
Ø umuSevrobis zrda da dasaqmebidan miRebuli Semosavlebis simcire;
Ø mosaxleobis qonebrivi diferenciaciis (polarizaciis) zrda;
Ø SromiTi uflebebis daucveloba da momuSaveTa diskriminacia;
Ø sapensio uzrunvelyofisa da socialuri daxmarebebis efeqtiani sistemis ararseboba.
saqarTveloSi ukanaskneli 20 wlis ganmavlobaSi ganviTarebuli demografiuli tendenciebi TvalnaTliv adastureben qveyanaSi demografiuli krizisis arsebobas. mosaxleobis or ukanasknel aRweraTa Soris periodSi (1989-2002 ww) saqarTvelos mosaxleobis ricxovnoba 1 mln 88 aTasi kaciT Semcirda, mosaxleobis bunebrivi matebis gaTvaliswinebiT ki klebam 1 mln 300 aTass gadaaWarba. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis kleba ganpirobebulia rogorc emigraciiT, saomari moqmedebebiTa da qveynis teritoriebis dakargviT, ise mosaxleobis aRwarmoebis reJimis gauaresebiT (Sobadobis kleba, mokvdaobis zrda, bunebrivi matebis minimumamde Semcireba). demografiuli tendenciebis analizisa da mosalodneli cvlilebebis prognozirebis safuZvelze, saqarTvelo dasaxelebulia im 50 qveyanas Soris, romlebic gaeros mier miCneulia demografiulad momakvdav qveynebad. gaero-s xalxTmosaxleobis fondis gaTvlebiT, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 2050 wlisaTvis 2,5 mln-mde Semcirdeba. qarTvel mecnier-demografTa prognozuli gaangariSebebiT ki, 2050 wels saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 3,0 _ 3,3 mln iqneba.
saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobis klebis paralelurad, arasasurveli cvlilebebi xdeba mosaxleobis asakobriv struqturaSi: mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobaSi ganuxrelad mcirdeba 15 wlamde asakis bavSvebisa da mozardebis, aseve Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobis wili da izrdeba xandazmulTa xvedriTi wona. saqarTvelos mosaxleoba demografiulad daberebulia da daberebis procesi sul ufro intensiuri xdeba. prognozuli gaangariSebebiT, 2050 wlisaTvis saqarTvelos TiTqmis yoveli meoTxe mosaxle 65 welze ufrosi asakis iqneba[1]. qveynis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis daCqarebisa da socialuri uzrunvelyofis efeqtiani sistemis gareSe SeuZlebeli iqneba xandazmulTa Rirseuli uzrunvelyofa da mkveTrad gaizrdeba dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis ekonomikuri datvirTvis done.
mosaxleobis daberebisa da cxovrebis pirobebis gauaresebis gamo uaresdeba mosaxleobis janmrTelobis mdgomareoba, izrdeba daavadebaTa SemTxvevebi da gardacvlilTa raodenoba. gansakuTrebiT SemaSfoTebelia daavadebaTa SemTxvevebis mateba 0-14 wlisa da Sromisunariani asakis mosaxleobaSi. aseT viTarebaSi samedicino momsaxurebasa da medikamentebze fasebis mkveTri zrda, saxelmwifo dafinansebis Semcireba[2], jandacvis dazRvevis efeqtiani sistemis Camouyalibebloba mosaxleobis didi nawilisaTvis xelmiuwvdomels xdis mkurnalobasa da xarisxiani samedicino momsaxurebis miRebas.
samuSao Zalis xarisxobrivi aRwarmoebisaTvis seriozuli socialuri safrTxis matarebelia mosaxleobis mniSvnelovani nawilisaTvis ganaTlebis xelmisawvdomobis Semcireba. cxovrebis donis gauaresebis kvalobaze TandaTan matulobs im bavSvebis raodenoba, romlebic ar Sedian skolaSi, an ar amTavreben sabazo ganaTlebas: statistikuri monacemebiT, yovelwliurad saskolo asakis bavSvebis 7-8% ar Sedis skolebSi saswavleblad; skolaSi swavlas yovelwliurad Tavs anebebs 2-dan 6 aTasamde bavSvi; saSualo skoladamTavrebulTa daax. 40% ver axerxebs swavlis gagrZelebas. samwuxarod, arsebobs molodini, rom mzardi siRaribis gamo aseTi kategoriebis ricxvi kidev ufro gaizrdeba. amis paralelurad sul ufro mcirdeba ganaTlebis saxelmwifo dafinanseba da izrdeba swavlebis safasuri. saxelmwifo biujetis xarjebSi ganaTlebaze gaweuli danaxarjebis wiliT saqarTvelos msoflios 136 qveyanas Soris 124-e adgili ukavia.[3] saxelmwifos mxridan dafinansebis Semcirebis pirobebSi profesiuli da akademiuri ganaTlebis miReba mosaxleobis umravlesobisaTvis perspeqtivaSi kidev ufro xelmiuwvdomeli gaxdeba.
1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi ganviTarebuli ekonomikuri krizisis Sedegad mkveTrad SeizRuda mosaxleobis dasaqmebis SesaZleblobebi da erovnul meurneobaSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvi erT milionze meti kaciT Semcirda. amis Sedegad umuSevroba qveynisaTvis umwvaves socialur-ekonomikur problemad iqca. umuSevrobis maRal donesTan erTad aqtualuria `Raribi dasaqmebulebis~ problemac, rac dasaqmebidan miRebul mcire Semosavlebs ukavSirdeba. saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebis kvlevis SedegebiT, daqiravebuli Sromidan miRebuli Semosavali Seadgens Sinameurneobis saerTo Semosavlebis mxolod 31%-s, xolo TviTdasaqmebidan _ 9,8%-s.[4] saqarTvelos statistikis departamentis mier 2006 wlis seqtemberSi Catarebuli kvlevis SedegebiT, daqiravebiT momuSaveTa 44%-s saarsebo minimumze naklebi xelfasi hqonda. marTalia, 2004-2009 wlebSi daqiravebiT momuSaveTa saSualo Tviuri nominaluri xelfasi 3,6-jer (saxelmwifo marTvis sistemaSi 4,6-jer) gaizarda[5], magram daqiravebiT momuSaveTa mcire ricxovnobisa da xelfasis metismetad maRali diferenciaciis gamo, situacia mosaxleobis Semosavlebis sferoSi aman arsebiTad ver Secvala.
umuSevroba da dasaqmebidan miRebuli mcire Semosavlebi siRaribis ganmapirobebeli mTavari faqtorebia. Tanamedrove saqarTvelosaTvis siRaribe yvelaze didi socialuri riski da mwvave problemaa. samwuxarod, siRaribis Semcirebis tendencia arc ukanasknel wlebSi fiqsirdeba.
umuSevrobasa da dasaqmebidan miRebul mcire Semosavlebs emateba is faqtic, rom saqarTveloSi SromiTi kanonmdeblobis `liberalizaciam~ momuSaveTa pirdapiri diskriminaciisaTvis sasurveli pirobebi Seqmna. swored moqmedi SromiTi kanonmdeblobisa da araefeqturi sasamarTlo sistemis damsaxurebaa is faqti, romDTanamedrove saqarTveloSi Cveulebriv movlenad iqca:
ü 10-12 saaTiani (rig SemTxvevebSi ki 14-16 saaTiani) samuSao dRe;
ü 6 dRiani samuSao kvira an muSaoba gamosasvleli dRis gareSe;
ü saarsebo minimumze naklebi xelfasebi;
ü xelfasebis dagvianebiT gacema an saerTod ar micema;
ü samuSaodan umizezod daTxovna;
ü diskriminacia asakis, partiuli kuTvnilebis da sxva subieqturi niSnebis mixedviT;
ü samuSaoze miRebisas dausabuTebeli moTxovnebi da dausabuTebeli uari;
ü xanmokle SromiTi kontraqtebi;
ü Svebulebebis ar micema;
ü orsuli da mcirewlovanbavSviani qalebis SromiTi uflebebis daucveloba;
ü sicocxlisa da janmrTelobisaTvis saSiS pirobebSi momuSaveTa rodenobis zrda da maTi uflebebis daucveloba da a.S.
2006 wels miRebuli `Sromis kodeqsiT~ dadgenili normebi diskriminaciuli da araracionaluria. igi ar emsaxureba ara marto daqiravebiT momuSavis, aramed sazogadoebis, saxelmwifosa da TviT damsaqmeblis interesebsac maRalmwarmoebluri da motivirebuli momuSavis TvalsazrisiT.
saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis qonebrivi polarizacia socialurad saSiS zRvars karga xania gadacda da igi qveyanaSi socialuri daZabulobis mTavar faqtorad SeiZleba mogvevlinos. cnobilia, rom yvelaze dabali da maRalSemosavliani deciluri jgufebis Semosavlebs Soris Tanafardobis zRvrul-kritikuli maCveneblia 1:10. saqarTveloSi, 2008 wlis statistikuri monacemebiT, es Tanafardoba mTliani Semosavlis mixedviT 1:27, fuladi Semosavlebis mixedviT ki 1:29-is tolia.[6] Semosavlebisa da moxmarebis uTanasworobis maCvenebliT (jinis indeqsi), msoflios 143 qveynis monacemebis mixedviT, saqarTvelo 33-e adgilzea (anu msoflioSi mxolod 32 qveyanas aqvs saqarTveloze uaresi maCvenebeli da es qveynebi ZiriTadad afrikisa da samxreT amerikis yvelaze CamorCenili qveynebia)[7]. mosaxleobis socialuri diferenciaciisa da qonebrivi polarizaciis aseTi done namdvilad ar emsaxureba qveyanaSi socialuri stabilurobis uzrunvelyofis amocanas.
amis miuxedavad, saqarTvelos xelisufleba axorcielebs iseT ekonomikur da socialur politikas, romelic xels uwyobs mosaxleobis qonebrivi polarizaciis zrdas. kerZod, minimaluri xelfasis normativi qveyanaSi 20 laria (sajaro dawesebulebebSi _ 135 lari); ar arsebobs daubegravi minimumi (msoflios umetes qveynebSi igi saarsebo minimumis toli an masze metia); fizikur pirze saSemosavlo gadasaxadis ganakveTi 20%-ia (2009 wlis 1 ianvramde igi Seadgenda 25%-s), dividendsa da procentze (romelsac iReben mosaxleobis qonebrivad yvelaze SeZlebuli fenebi) ki 5%; politikuri Tanamdebobis pirebisa da sajaro moxeleTa saxelmwifo samedicino dazRvevis paketi bevrad ufro farTo da ZviradRirebulia, vidre Rataki mosaxleobisa da a.S.
qveyanaSi arsebuli masobrivi umuSevrobisa da siRatakis pirobebSi gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs socialuri dacvis efeqtiani sistemis arsebobas. saqarTveloSi arsebuli sapensio uzrunvelyofisa da socialuri daxmarebebis sistema ver pasuxobs misadmi wayenebul moTxovnebs, kerZod, ver uzrunvelyofs mosaxleobis socialurad daucveli fenebis realur daxmarebas (Tundac saarsebo minimumis doneze), ar aris ekonomikurad da socialurad efeqtiani, ar Seesabameba qveyanaSi siRaribis daZlevisa da socialuri stabilurobis uzrunvelyofis amocanebs.
Tu ar Seicvala mTavrobis strategia, saqarTveloSi saSualovadian perspeqtivaSic ver Camoyalibdeba mosaxleobis socialuri dacvis qmedunariani da socialurad samarTliani sistema, romelic dafuZnebuli iqneba sadazRvevo principebze. arada mosaxleobis asakobriv struqturaSi mimdinare da mosalodneli cvlilebebi, dasaqmebis sferoSi arsebuli mdgomareoba gvafiqrebinebs, rom uaxloes perspeqtivaSi saxelmwifos kidev ufro gauWirdeba socialurad daucveli kategoriebis Senaxva da maTTvis realuri daxmarebis aRmoCena, miT ufro, rom socialuri politikis sxva komponentebi (dasaqmebis xelSewyoba, Semosavlebis regulireba, SromiTi garantiebi, droebiTi Sromisuunarobis anazRaureba, dekretuli Svebulebebis anazRaureba, samedicino momsaxurebis xelmisawvdomoba) saTanadod ver iTvaliswinebs qveyanaSi siRaribis daZlevis amocanas. ufro metic, ukanasknel periodSi SromiT kanonmdeblobaSi, dasaqmebis, janmrTelobis dacvisa da ganaTlebis sferoSi ganxorcielebuli cvlilebebi mZime tvirTad daawveba mosaxleobis saSualo fenas da maT lumpenizacias Seuwyobs xels.
yvela zemoaRniSnuli riski da gamowveva droul reagirebas saWiroebs sazogadoebisa da xelisuflebis mxridan. pirvel rigSi, saWiroa riskebis realurad Sefaseba da safrTxeebis gamomwvevi mizezebis kvleva, rac dagvexmareba prioritetebisa da orientirebis sworad gansazRvraSi. Semdeg ki TiToeulma samTavrobo struqturam, Tavisi kompetenciis farglebSi, unda SeimuSaos socialuri riskebis Semcirebis RonisZiebaTa gegma da mizanmimarTulad daiwyos maTi ganxorcieleba. amasTan, politika unda daefuZnos socialuri riskebis marTvis iseT strategias, romelic gulisxmobs zemoqmedebas riskebis gamomwvev mizezebze. calkeuli problemis specifikidan gamomdinare, saxelmwifom SeiZleba gamoiyenos sxva strategiac, magram strategiis nebismieri modeli unda emsaxurebodes riskis warmomsobi mizezebis aRmofxvras an ganmapirobebeli faqtorebis serbilebas, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi efeqti droebiTi iqneba da riski riskad darCeba.
[1] g. wulaZe, n. maRlaferiZe, a. vadaWkoria. saqarTvelos demografiuli perspeqtivebi. Tb., 2003, gv.34.
[2] humanuri ganviTarebis 2009 wlis angariSSi gamoqveynebuli 143 qveynis maCveneblebis mixedviT, biujetis danaxarjebSi jandacvaze gaweuli danaxarjebis wiliT saqarTvelo bolodan 21-e adgilzea. wyaro: UNDP. Human Development Report 2009. gv. 172.
[4] wyaro: statistikuri publikacia: saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi 2008. Tb., 2009. gv. 23.
[5] http://statistics.ge/main.php?pform=79&plang=2
[6] wyaro: saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi 2008. gv. 63
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